01
Challenge
The planning team had to commit production numbers to the board without knowing how much the underlying model could vary.
02
Problem
The budget plan rested on one deterministic resource model, and the variability of recovery, throughput and hardness had never been quantified. Without that, the main drivers of risk could not be ranked in time or in space, and the board was asked to commit to numbers with no sense of their range.
03
Solution
Geological simulation was combined with multivariate simulation of grades and metallurgical responses. The realizations were summed over the plan solids, monthly by phase for the first year and quarterly for the second, and the principal risk drivers were ranked across the plan.
04
Deliverables
The planning team receives variability ranges for each period, the risk hotspots by phase, and a repeatable methodology to apply to future budgets.
